← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Welz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 85% | 82% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 12% | 9.96 | value: +23% |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 5% | 6% | 18.84 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Miloš Veljković · SV Werder Bremen |
| 58' | 🟨 | Miloš Veljković · SV Werder Bremen |
| 58' | 🟥 | Miloš Veljković · SV Werder Bremen |
| 75' | ⚽ | Niklas Süle · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 28 | Shots | 3 |
| 7 | On target | 0 |
| 14 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 293.00 | 566.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.50 |
| elo | 2015.72 | 1753.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.00 | 46.76 |
| eye test v1 | 2.67 | 0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 50.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.73 |
| league points | 67.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.80 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.20 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 2.31 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 22.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.27 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.70 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.40 | 27.82 |
| state index | 2.56 | 1.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.66 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |