← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 40% | 45% | 2.44 | value: +10% |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 32% | 25% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.43 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Rani Khedira · FC Augsburg |
| 18' | ⚽ | André Hahn · FC Augsburg |
| 29' | ⚽ | Philipp Max · FC Augsburg |
| 53' | ⚽ | Marco Richter · FC Augsburg |
| 59' | ⚽ | Philipp Max · FC Augsburg |
| 68' | ⚽ | Marco Richter · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 14 |
| 13 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| coach days |
| 11.00 |
| 201.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1511.75 | 1487.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.81 | -17.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | -0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.40 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.61 |
| league points | 28.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 0.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.58 | -1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | — | 22.01 |
| state index | -0.05 | -0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.43 | -1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |