← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Petersen, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 74% | 66% | 1.31 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 21% | 6.50 | value: +34% |
| Hertha win | 11% | 13% | 8.55 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Nadiem Amiri · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 34' | 🟨 | Kerem Demirbay · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 76' | ⚽ | Reiss Nelson · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 30 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | WIRSOL Rhein-Neckar-Arena |
| coach days |
| 1168.00 |
| 1533.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 1.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1700.13 | 1556.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.62 | -33.26 |
| eye test v1 | 1.22 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 68.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.64 |
| league points | 44.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.71 | 0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.00 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | 1.03 | -0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | 1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |