← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastian Dankert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 66% | 63% | 1.46 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 22% | 4.83 | value: +5% |
| FC Augsburg win | 14% | 15% | 7.09 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 |
| venue | Commerzbank-Arena |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 287.00 | 5.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1832.52 | 1595.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.04 | -2.24 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.54 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 51.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.60 |
| league points | 52.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | -1.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.43 | 26.40 |
| state index | 1.34 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |