← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Brych, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 63% | 59% | 1.54 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 25% | 4.78 | value: +18% |
| Hannover win | 17% | 16% | 5.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 53' | ⚽ | Raffael · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 18 |
| 5 | On target | 9 |
| 3 | Corners | 12 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hannover | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| coach days | 773.00 | 863.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| venue | HDI Arena |
| -1.40 |
| 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1402.98 | 1624.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.57 | -25.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.80 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.59 |
| league points | 14.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.93 | 1.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 22.99 |
| state index | -1.36 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | 0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |