← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Deniz Aytekin, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 75% | 77% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 15% | 6.22 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 9% | 7% | 10.69 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Jadon Sancho · Borussia Dortmund |
| 24' | ⚽ | Jadon Sancho · Borussia Dortmund |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jean-Philippe Mateta · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 83' | ⚽ | Robin Quaison · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 17 |
| 7 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Signal Iduna Park |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 286.00 | 712.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.08 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1875.80 | 1636.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.22 | -8.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.83 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.50 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.57 |
| league points | 63.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 37.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.36 | -0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 25.44 | 25.70 |
| state index | 1.01 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.75 | -1.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |