← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Fri, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kampka, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 43% | 44% | 2.26 | fair |
| Nurnberg win | 28% | 31% | 3.42 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.43 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 72' | 🟨 | Omar Mascarell · FC Schalke 04 |
| 78' | 🟨 | Matheus Pereira · Nurnberg |
| 82' | ⚽ | Yuya Kubo · Nurnberg |
| 85' | ⚽ | Matija Nastasić · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Benjamin Stambouli · FC Schalke 04 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 70.00 | 42.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1529.08 | 1656.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.28 | -45.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.62 |
| league points | 17.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.61 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.27 | -1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 24.86 | 26.04 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.07 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |