← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Schroder, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 54% | 51% | 1.82 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 24% | 24% | 4.06 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | 4.33 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 18 |
| 0 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| coach days |
| 1040.00 |
| 1161.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1498.11 | 1688.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.00 | 8.88 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | 0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| league points | 25.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 8.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.76 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| state index | -0.18 | 0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.67 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |