← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Cortus, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 67% | 70% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 19% | 4.88 | fair |
| Hannover win | 14% | 11% | 7.16 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Renato Steffen · Wolfsburg |
| 20' | 🟨 | Nicolai Müller · Hannover |
| 30' | ⚽ | Hendrik Weydandt · Hannover |
| 32' | ⚽ | Renato Steffen · Wolfsburg |
| 71' | ⚽ | Renato Steffen · Wolfsburg |
| 78' | ⚽ | Jérôme Roussillon · Wolfsburg |
| 84' | 🟨 | Kevin Wimmer · Hannover |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | Hannover |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| coach days | 429.00 | 766.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1712.80 | 1511.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.04 | -44.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 51.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| league points | 42.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 0.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.44 | -0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.35 | 27.21 |
| state index | 0.47 | -1.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.66 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |