← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Willenborg, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 54% | 52% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.79 | value: +13% |
| Nurnberg win | 20% | 18% | 4.83 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | ⚽ | Matheus Pereira · Nurnberg |
| 75' | ⚽ | Ozan Kabak · VfB Stuttgart |
| 79' | 🟨 | Tim Leibold · Nurnberg |
| 81' | 🟨 | Virgil Misidjan · Nurnberg |
| 82' | 🟨 | Robert Bauer · Nurnberg |
| 87' | 🟨 | Benjamin Pavard · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 12 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Mercedes-Benz Arena |
| coach days |
| 187.00 |
| 64.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.57 | 0.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1498.23 | 1439.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.01 | 3.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | 0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.75 |
| league points | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 67.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 38.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 0.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.64 | -1.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 22.01 | — |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.17 | -1.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |