← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sascha Stegemann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 43% | 52% | 2.27 | value: +19% |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 30% | 24% | 3.26 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Ante Rebić · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 21' | ⚽ | Suat Serdar · FC Schalke 04 |
| 23' | 🟨 | Jonathan de Guzmán · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 25' | 🟨 | Suat Serdar · FC Schalke 04 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Breel Embolo · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Guido Burgstaller · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Caligiuri · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Suat Serdar · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' | 🟥 | Suat Serdar · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Luka Jović · Eintracht Frankfurt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 8 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| venue | VELTINS-Arena |
| coach days |
| 36.00 |
| 279.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1555.48 | 1735.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -55.83 | 31.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | 0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 66.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.85 |
| league points | 26.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 24.91 | 25.76 |
| state index | -0.74 | 1.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |