← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Christian Dingert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 49% | 48% | 1.98 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.82 | fair |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 25% | 27% | 3.85 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | ⚽ | Benito Raman · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 41' | ⚽ | Marko Grujić · Hertha |
| 56' | 🟨 | Kevin Stöger · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 61' | ⚽ | Benito Raman · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 63' | 🟨 | Ondrej Duda · Hertha |
| 64' | 🟨 | Maximilian Mittelstädt · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Olympiastadion |
| coach days |
| 1525.00 |
| 1131.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1569.52 | 1538.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.20 | 25.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.80 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| league points | 35.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 6.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.30 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.50 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.64 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |