← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 67% | 67% | 1.46 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 20% | 5.13 | value: +5% |
| Borussia Dortmund win | 14% | 13% | 7.02 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 5 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| coach days |
| 279.00 |
| 279.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1885.59 | 1777.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.66 | 8.08 |
| eye test v1 | 2.45 | 1.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 68.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.69 |
| league points | 61.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.60 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 6.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.26 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.20 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.22 | 1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.20 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 10.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 26.40 | 25.47 |
| state index | 2.06 | 1.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.87 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |