← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sven Jablonski, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 51% | 50% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.72 | fair |
| Hannover win | 23% | 23% | 4.28 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Bruma · FC Schalke 04 |
| 39' | ⚽ | Suat Serdar · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hendrik Weydandt · Hannover |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hannover | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | HDI Arena |
| coach days |
| 760.00 |
| 30.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1416.58 | 1547.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.35 | -68.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.95 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.59 |
| league points | 14.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 14.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.54 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.60 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.14 | -0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 24.91 |
| state index | -1.46 | -1.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |