← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Brych, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 64% | 65% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.63 | fair |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 15% | 14% | 6.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Commerzbank-Arena |
| coach days |
| 273.00 |
| 181.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 3.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1730.29 | 1503.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.82 | 7.18 |
| eye test v1 | 1.19 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.70 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.54 |
| league points | 46.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 38.60 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 14.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.77 | 0.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.26 | -1.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.76 | 22.01 |
| state index | 1.22 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.61 | -1.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |