← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Siebert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 40% | 38% | 2.42 | fair |
| Nurnberg win | 31% | 31% | 3.17 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.37 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Dong-Won Ji · FC Augsburg |
| 26' | 🟨 | Robert Bauer · Nurnberg |
| 52' | ⚽ | Mikael Ishak · Nurnberg |
| 55' | 🟨 | Daniel Baier · FC Augsburg |
| 82' | 🟨 | Michael Gregoritsch · FC Augsburg |
| 88' | ⚽ | Matheus Pereira · Nurnberg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Eduard Löwen · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days |
| 57.00 |
| 1032.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.76 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1420.45 | 1517.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.19 | 13.40 |
| eye test v1 | -1.07 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| league points | 13.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 34.00 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.20 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.08 | -1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| state index | -1.46 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.34 | -0.97 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |