← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Christian Dingert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 79% | 71% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 17% | 7.30 | value: +21% |
| SC Freiburg win | 7% | 12% | 13.34 | value: +60% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 26 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.61 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.53 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Schwarzwald-Stadion |
| coach days |
| 2676.00 |
| 272.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 1.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 9.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 2.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1536.01 | 1892.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.02 | 24.55 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | 2.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.54 | 0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 64.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.75 |
| league points | 31.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 88.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 65.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 2.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 10.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 18.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | 2.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 8.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 12.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 9.80 |
| squad age | — | 26.79 |
| state index | 0.31 | 2.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.84 | 1.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |