← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Markus Schmidt, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 65% | 62% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.47 | value: +7% |
| Wolfsburg win | 13% | 14% | 7.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | John Brooks · Wolfsburg |
| 17' | 🟨 | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | William · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Paco Alcácer · Borussia Dortmund |
| 90' | ⚽ | Paco Alcácer · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Signal Iduna Park |
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 272.00 | 422.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1879.98 | 1719.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.24 | 40.16 |
| eye test v1 | 1.30 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.00 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| league points | 60.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.31 | 1.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.80 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.51 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 23.61 | 25.84 |
| state index | 1.29 | 0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.56 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |