← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Deniz Aytekin, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 61% | 66% | 1.60 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.38 | fair |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 17% | 13% | 5.74 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | BayArena |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 75.00 | 532.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1796.16 | 1717.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.45 | 22.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.77 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.53 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| league points | 42.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.30 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.53 | 28.35 |
| state index | 1.09 | 0.88 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.57 | 0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |