← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bibiana Steinhaus, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 72% | 74% | 1.34 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 13% | 5.61 | fair |
| Nurnberg win | 11% | 13% | 9.10 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Martin Hinteregger · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 69' | 🟨 | Edgar Salli · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lukas Mühl · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 4 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Commerzbank-Arena |
| coach days |
| 259.00 |
| 44.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1728.12 | 1422.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.05 | -19.25 |
| eye test v1 | 1.42 | -1.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| league points | 43.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 19.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 36.60 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.72 | 0.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.01 | -1.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 25.76 | — |
| state index | 1.08 | -1.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.67 | -0.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |