← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 51% | 48% | 1.92 | fair |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 25% | 27% | 3.85 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | ⚽ | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 45' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Castro · VfB Stuttgart |
| 59' | 🟨 | Joelinton · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 66' | ⚽ | Steven Zuber · VfB Stuttgart |
| 68' | 🟨 | Steven Zuber · VfB Stuttgart |
| 69' | 🟨 | Santiago Ascacíbar · VfB Stuttgart |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ozan Kabak · VfB Stuttgart |
| 79' | 🟨 | Nico Schulz · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 21 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Mercedes-Benz Arena |
| coach days |
| 166.00 |
| 1139.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.83 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1500.66 | 1676.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.88 | 7.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | 1.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.50 | 0.73 |
| league points | 19.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.19 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 22.01 | — |
| state index | -0.41 | 0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.77 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |