← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 59% | 57% | 1.64 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.19 | fair |
| Hannover win | 18% | 19% | 5.53 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Hendrik Weydandt · Hannover |
| 31' | 🟨 | Michael Esser · Hannover |
| 35' | 🟨 | Jonathas · Hannover |
| 39' | 🟨 | André Hahn · FC Augsburg |
| 65' | ⚽ | Sergio Córdova · FC Augsburg |
| 78' | ⚽ | Jonathan Schmid · FC Augsburg |
| 79' | 🟨 | Linton Maina · Hannover |
| 80' | 🟨 | Marvin Bakalorz · Hannover |
| 86' | ⚽ | André Hahn · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Uffe Bech · Hannover |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 13 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | Hannover |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| coach days | 1018.00 | 745.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1619.29 | 1528.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.21 | -22.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| league points | 22.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 0.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.11 | -0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.74 | 27.14 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |