← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Fri, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kampka, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 59% | 51% | 1.64 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 34% | 4.05 | value: +36% |
| SC Freiburg win | 17% | 16% | 5.83 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Vincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg |
| 16' | ⚽ | Alassane Pléa · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 39' | 🟨 | Amir Abrashi · SC Freiburg |
| 70' | 🟨 | Pascal Stenzel · SC Freiburg |
| 81' | 🟨 | Vincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Mönchengladbach | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Borussia-Park |
| coach days |
| 834.00 |
| 2661.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.08 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1647.80 | 1531.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -51.14 | 23.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| league points | 46.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.84 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.22 | -0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 22.99 | — |
| state index | -0.37 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.76 | -0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |