← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Christian Dingert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 75% | 75% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 13% | 6.36 | fair |
| Nurnberg win | 10% | 12% | 9.82 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Stefan Posch · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 24' | 🟨 | Patrick Erras · Nurnberg |
| 25' | ⚽ (pen) | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 61' | ⚽ | Hanno Behrens · Nurnberg |
| 78' | ⚽ | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 79' | 🟨 | Tim Leibold · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Florian Grillitsch · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joelinton · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | WIRSOL Rhein-Neckar-Arena |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 1133.00 | 37.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.07 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1780.56 | 1509.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.25 | -11.86 |
| eye test v1 | 1.01 | -1.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.66 |
| league points | 34.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 37.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 0.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.43 | -1.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 1.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 1.60 |
| squad age | 25.13 | 25.92 |
| state index | 0.69 | -1.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |