← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sören Storks, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 69% | 75% | 1.40 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 18% | 12% | 5.27 | fair |
| Hannover win | 13% | 13% | 7.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Tin Jedvaj · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 13' | ⚽ | Kevin Volland · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 14' | 🟨 | Kevin Wimmer · Hannover |
| 28' | ⚽ | Kevin Volland · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 51' | ⚽ | Jonathas · Hannover |
| 73' | ⚽ (og) | Mitchell Weiser · Hannover |
| 76' | 🟨 | Miiko Albornoz · Hannover |
| 87' | ⚽ | Kai Havertz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pirmin Schwegler · Hannover |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hannover | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| venue | HDI Arena |
| coach days |
| 739.00 |
| 68.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1430.46 | 1695.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.91 | 0.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.93 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.77 |
| league points | 14.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 88.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 71.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.58 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | 2.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 6.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 23.79 |
| state index | -1.14 | 0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | 1.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |