← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sven Jablonski, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 73% | 69% | 1.32 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 19% | 5.62 | value: +10% |
| FC Augsburg win | 9% | 12% | 10.39 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Konaté · RB Leipzig |
| 35' | 🟨 | Kevin Danso · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| coach days | 251.00 | 1011.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| 2.80 |
| -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1702.91 | 1501.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.27 | 3.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.30 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.62 |
| league points | 45.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 23.29 | — |
| state index | 1.04 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |