← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Markus Schmidt, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 40% | 44% | 2.46 | value: +8% |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 33% | 29% | 2.97 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 63' | ⚽ | Nico Elvedi · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 81' | 🟨 | Jean-Paul Boëtius · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jean-Philippe Gbamin · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 4 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Opel Arena |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 677.00 | 828.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 3.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1637.86 | 1750.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.96 | -44.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.72 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.71 |
| league points | 30.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.33 | 1.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.73 | 27.29 |
| state index | -0.26 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.57 | 0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |