← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Schroder, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 39% | 32% | 2.51 | fair |
| Hertha win | 32% | 30% | 3.01 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 38% | 3.40 | value: +29% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Maximilian Mittelstädt · Hertha |
| 27' | ⚽ | Nils Petersen · SC Freiburg |
| 43' | 🟨 | Niklas Stark · Hertha |
| 59' | 🟨 | Marko Grujić · Hertha |
| 61' | 🟨 | Keven Schlotterbeck · SC Freiburg |
| 76' | ⚽ | Vedad Ibišević · Hertha |
| 80' | ⚽ (og) | Vedad Ibišević · SC Freiburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Schwarzwald-Stadion |
| coach days |
| 2655.00 |
| 1497.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 0.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1520.86 | 1597.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.83 | 16.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 67.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.62 |
| league points | 27.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.84 | -0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.10 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.35 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |