← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sascha Stegemann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 79% | 80% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 13% | 6.98 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 7% | 7% | 13.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 4 |
| 12 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| coach days |
| 251.00 |
| 401.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 1.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1883.95 | 1604.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.25 | 47.54 |
| eye test v1 | 1.40 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 64.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| league points | 54.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.40 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.00 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.60 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.28 | — |
| state index | 1.50 | 0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.10 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |