← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Fri, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Petersen, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 44% | 45% | 2.21 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.48 | fair |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 28% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Maximilian Eggestein · SV Werder Bremen |
| 21' | 🟨 | Miloš Veljković · SV Werder Bremen |
| 26' | ⚽ | Breel Embolo · FC Schalke 04 |
| 31' | ⚽ | Milot Rashica · SV Werder Bremen |
| 51' | ⚽ (pen) | Max Kruse · SV Werder Bremen |
| 70' | 🟨 | Nabil Bentaleb · FC Schalke 04 |
| 73' | ⚽ | Milot Rashica · SV Werder Bremen |
| 85' | ⚽ | Breel Embolo · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Martin Harnik · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Weser-Stadion |
| coach days |
| 523.00 |
| 7.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1595.59 | 1566.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.84 | -69.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | -0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.76 | -0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.50 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| league points | 33.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.45 | -0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | — | 24.91 |
| state index | 0.35 | -1.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |