← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Siebert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 43% | 41% | 2.28 | fair |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 29% | 27% | 3.31 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.52 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 54' | ⚽ | John Brooks · Wolfsburg |
| 66' | 🟨 | Maximilian Eggestein · SV Werder Bremen |
| 74' | ⚽ | Max Kruse · SV Werder Bremen |
| 80' | 🟨 | Ludwig Augustinsson · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 22 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| coach days |
| 395.00 |
| 518.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1606.39 | 1593.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.48 | 7.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.72 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.20 | 50.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.66 |
| league points | 38.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | 0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.62 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |