← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastian Dankert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 57% | 56% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.95 | value: +7% |
| Hannover win | 19% | 17% | 5.17 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Mario Gómez · VfB Stuttgart |
| 16' | ⚽ | Ozan Kabak · VfB Stuttgart |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ozan Kabak · VfB Stuttgart |
| 60' | 🟨 | Oliver Sorg · Hannover |
| 68' | ⚽ | Jonathas · Hannover |
| 75' | 🟨 | Alexander Esswein · VfB Stuttgart |
| 75' | 🟨 | Steven Zuber · VfB Stuttgart |
| 75' | 🟨 | Marvin Bakalorz · Hannover |
| 78' | ⚽ | Steven Zuber · VfB Stuttgart |
| 81' | ⚽ | Steven Zuber · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 3 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | Hannover |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Mercedes-Benz Arena |
| coach days | 153.00 | 732.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.54 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1593.13 | 1546.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.63 | -17.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.61 | -0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.80 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.73 |
| league points | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 0.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.49 | -0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.52 | 27.66 |
| state index | -0.79 | -0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |