← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Schlager, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 64% | 67% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 19% | 4.32 | fair |
| Nurnberg win | 14% | 13% | 7.19 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Tim Leibold · Nurnberg |
| 40' | ⚽ | Lukas Klostermann · RB Leipzig |
| 51' | 🟨 | Marcel Sabitzer · RB Leipzig |
| 57' | 🟨 | Hanno Behrens · Nurnberg |
| 58' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Konaté · RB Leipzig |
| 70' | 🟨 | Kevin Kampl · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 8 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days |
| 29.00 |
| 244.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.05 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1430.17 | 1698.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.72 | 28.25 |
| eye test v1 | -1.22 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.68 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.66 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.74 |
| league points | 13.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.60 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.80 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.33 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 1.90 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | — | 23.56 |
| state index | -1.38 | 1.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.79 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |