← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 61% | 55% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 26% | 4.17 | value: +10% |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 16% | 18% | 6.15 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 19 |
| 2 | On target | 14 |
| 1 | Corners | 9 |
| 6 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Mönchengladbach | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Borussia-Park |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 821.00 | 244.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 3.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1761.09 | 1988.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.04 | -10.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.83 | 0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.59 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.68 |
| league points | 43.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 65.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.87 | 2.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.79 | 2.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.55 | 27.03 |
| state index | 0.40 | 1.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.17 | 1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |