← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Guido Winkmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 66% | 61% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 26% | 4.72 | value: +22% |
| SC Freiburg win | 13% | 13% | 7.19 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Charles Aránguiz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 73' | ⚽ | Leon Bailey · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| coach days | 60.00 | 2648.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| venue | BayArena |
| 2.00 |
| 5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1688.52 | 1527.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.25 | 10.02 |
| eye test v1 | 0.80 | 0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.67 |
| league points | 36.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.59 | -0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.70 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 23.79 | — |
| state index | 0.75 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.81 | -1.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |