← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Deniz Aytekin, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 50% | 53% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.48 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 22% | 21% | 4.47 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 46' | ⚽ (og) | Niklas Stark · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 50' | ⚽ | Marko Grujić · Hertha |
| 60' | ⚽ | Niklas Stark · Hertha |
| 61' | 🟨 | Stefan Bell · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 87' | 🟨 | Giulio Donati · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Olympiastadion |
| coach days |
| 1490.00 |
| 670.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1590.22 | 1534.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.59 | -19.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.80 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| league points | 32.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.79 | -0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.19 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.67 | -1.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |