← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Fri, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Stieler, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 60% | 62% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.18 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 17% | 16% | 5.81 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Dong-Won Ji · FC Augsburg |
| 67' | ⚽ | Dong-Won Ji · FC Augsburg |
| 81' | ⚽ | Paco Alcácer · Borussia Dortmund |
| 84' | 🟨 | André Hahn · FC Augsburg |
| 84' | 🟨 | Raphaël Guerreiro · Borussia Dortmund |
| 90' | 🟨 | Achraf Hakimi · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| coach days |
| 1003.00 |
| 243.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1486.16 | 1775.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.72 | -2.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | 0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 63.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.70 |
| league points | 18.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 2.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | 1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| squad age | — | 24.57 |
| state index | -0.75 | 0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | 0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |