← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Mon, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Brych, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 51% | 59% | 1.91 | value: +12% |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 25% | 18% | 3.95 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.01 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 57' | 🟨 | Pavel Kadeřábek · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 89' | ⚽ | Willi Orbán · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 21 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| coach days |
| 239.00 |
| 1120.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.73 | 3.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1700.57 | 1679.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.41 | 6.79 |
| eye test v1 | 0.42 | 1.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.72 |
| league points | 41.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | 0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 6.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.40 |
| squad age | 24.22 | — |
| state index | 1.11 | 0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |