← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kampka, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 59% | 53% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.26 | value: +7% |
| Hannover win | 18% | 22% | 5.27 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 54' | ⚽ | Ante Rebić · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 55' | 🟨 | Danny da Costa · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 60' | 🟨 | Felipe · Hannover |
| 63' | ⚽ | Luka Jović · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 90' | ⚽ | Filip Kostić · Eintracht Frankfurt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hannover | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | HDI Arena |
| coach days |
| 725.00 |
| 238.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 3.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1452.94 | 1687.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.86 | 13.02 |
| eye test v1 | -0.85 | 0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| league points | 14.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 0.64 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.20 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.40 | -0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.76 |
| state index | -0.82 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | -0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |