← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Christian Dingert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 49% | 56% | 1.98 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.82 | fair |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 25% | 18% | 3.85 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Signal Iduna Park |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 238.00 | 54.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.01 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1879.06 | 1790.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.09 | 33.55 |
| eye test v1 | 0.87 | 0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.62 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.56 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.79 |
| league points | 51.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 67.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.32 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.61 | 2.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 6.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 24.60 | 25.50 |
| state index | 1.23 | 1.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.09 | 1.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |