← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sven Jablonski, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 41% | 43% | 2.36 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 30% | 29% | 3.28 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.37 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Opel Arena |
| coach days |
| 663.00 |
| 632.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1515.24 | 1611.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.98 | -17.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| league points | 27.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.92 | -0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 24.91 |
| state index | -0.70 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.16 | -0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |