← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Welz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 39% | 44% | 2.49 | value: +10% |
| FC Augsburg win | 31% | 26% | 3.13 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Nils Petersen · SC Freiburg |
| 30' | ⚽ | Vincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg |
| 34' | 🟨 | Daniel Baier · FC Augsburg |
| 43' | ⚽ | Nils Petersen · SC Freiburg |
| 52' | ⚽ | Rani Khedira · FC Augsburg |
| 61' | 🟨 | Ja-Cheol Koo · FC Augsburg |
| 64' | ⚽ | Luca Waldschmidt · SC Freiburg |
| 76' | 🟨 | Dong-Won Ji · FC Augsburg |
| 85' | ⚽ | Florian Niederlechner · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | 🟥 | Reece Oxford · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 14 |
| 11 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Schwarzwald-Stadion |
| coach days |
| 2641.00 |
| 997.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.78 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1512.47 | 1501.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.04 | -15.95 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.58 |
| league points | 24.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | -0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.46 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.10 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |