← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sascha Stegemann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 50% | 47% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.55 | fair |
| Nurnberg win | 22% | 25% | 4.42 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟥 | Matheus Pereira · Nurnberg |
| 13' | 🟨 | Kaan Ayhan · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 24' | 🟨 | Hanno Behrens · Nurnberg |
| 41' | ⚽ | Eduard Löwen · Nurnberg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Alfredo Morales · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 62' | ⚽ (og) | Ewerton · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 72' | 🟨 | Christian Mathenia · Nurnberg |
| 78' | 🟨 | Kevin Stöger · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 83' | ⚽ | Kaan Ayhan · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 89' | 🟨 | Tim Leibold · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ewerton · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Merkur Spielarena |
| coach days |
| 1089.00 |
| 22.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 3.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1513.35 | 1436.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.11 | -21.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.93 | -1.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| league points | 25.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 0.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.99 | -0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 2.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| state index | -0.09 | -1.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.64 | -0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |