← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Harm Osmers, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 80% | 82% | 1.21 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 14% | 7.24 | fair |
| Hertha win | 7% | 5% | 14.46 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 51' | 🟨 | Joshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München |
| 62' | ⚽ | Javi Martínez · FC Bayern München |
| 84' | 🟥 | Karim Rekik · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | James Rodríguez · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| coach days |
| 237.00 |
| 1483.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.26 | 1.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1870.94 | 1592.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.26 | 24.94 |
| eye test v1 | 1.26 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | -0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 65.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.68 |
| league points | 48.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.60 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.20 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.18 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.08 | -0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.10 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.46 | — |
| state index | 1.38 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.94 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |