← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Fri, Feb 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Hartmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 61% | 60% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | 4.42 | fair |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 17% | 20% | 5.57 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Weser-Stadion |
| coach days |
| 509.00 |
| 144.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 3.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1598.08 | 1487.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.77 | -40.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.83 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.79 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.50 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.54 |
| league points | 31.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 0.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 22.01 |
| state index | 0.56 | -1.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |