← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Mon, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Harm Osmers, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 61% | 76% | 1.58 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 23% | 15% | 4.26 | fair |
| Nurnberg win | 16% | 9% | 6.11 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 88' | 🟨 | Christian Mathenia · Nurnberg |
| 89' | 🟨 | Axel Witsel · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 11 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| coach days | 17.00 | 232.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| 1.00 |
| 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1429.64 | 1775.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.50 | 12.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.84 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.74 |
| league points | 12.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 2.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | 1.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.63 |
| state index | -1.37 | 1.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | 0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |