← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Deniz Aytekin, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 42% | 36% | 2.30 | fair |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 30% | 23% | 3.23 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 41% | 3.56 | value: +47% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Commerzbank-Arena |
| coach days | 231.00 | 808.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.39 | 1.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1677.43 | 1672.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.65 | 0.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| league points | 33.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | 1.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.76 | 22.99 |
| state index | 0.25 | 0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | 1.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |