← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Siebert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 77% | 75% | 1.26 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 18% | 6.79 | value: +19% |
| Hannover win | 9% | 7% | 10.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Joelinton · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 14' | ⚽ | Ishak Belfodil · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 61' | 🟨 | Walace · Hannover |
| 80' | ⚽ | Kerem Demirbay · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 26 | Shots | 5 |
| 11 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Hannover |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | WIRSOL Rhein-Neckar-Arena |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 1111.00 | 717.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1673.22 | 1458.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.38 | -21.35 |
| eye test v1 | 1.18 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| league points | 30.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.88 | -0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.23 | -0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |