← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sören Storks, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 37% | 40% | 2.61 | value: +3% |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 34% | 31% | 2.89 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Davie Selke · Hertha |
| 27' | 🟨 | Karim Rekik · Hertha |
| 61' | 🟨 | Sebastian Langkamp · SV Werder Bremen |
| 72' | 🟨 | Philipp Bargfrede · SV Werder Bremen |
| 77' | 🟨 | Valentino Lazaro · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vedad Ibišević · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Davy Klaassen · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Claudio Pizarro · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Olympiastadion |
| coach days | 1476.00 | 503.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1700.36 | 1707.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.73 | 11.38 |
| eye test v1 | 0.50 | 1.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.54 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.30 | 50.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| league points | 31.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 25.81 | 27.72 |
| state index | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.32 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |