← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Fri, Feb 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bibiana Steinhaus, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 81% | 71% | 1.19 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 14% | 8.16 | value: +18% |
| FC Augsburg win | 7% | 15% | 13.41 | value: +98% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ (og) | Leon Goretzka · FC Augsburg |
| 17' | ⚽ | Kingsley Coman · FC Bayern München |
| 23' | ⚽ | Dong-Won Ji · FC Augsburg |
| 45' | ⚽ | Kingsley Coman · FC Bayern München |
| 53' | ⚽ | David Alaba · FC Bayern München |
| 72' | 🟨 | Leon Goretzka · FC Bayern München |
| 76' | 🟨 | Marco Richter · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Javi Martínez · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 1 | Corners | 9 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 989.00 | 229.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 3.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1615.36 | 1983.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.64 | 4.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | 1.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.60 |
| league points | 18.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 2.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | 1.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 26.34 | 27.26 |
| state index | -0.26 | 1.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | 0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |